Diplomacy on a deadline Re: Russia analysts explain why Putin’s peace summit in Turkey poses enormous risks not only for Ukraine but for all of Europe

Volodymyr Zelensky says he will fly to Turkey and wait there for Vladimir Putin, aiming to resume direct negotiations on Thursday, May 15. If the Russian president shows up, U.S. President Donald Trump has said he’ll join, too. Put simply, what happens next hinges on Vladimir Putin, who was the first to propose a meeting in Turkey. In a recent essay, experts from Kirill Rogov’s think tank, Re: Russia, warned that the talks pose enormous risks not only for Ukraine but for all of Europe. Meduza summarizes the article’s main arguments.

The possibility of a three-way meeting in Istanbul may seem like a surprising diplomatic turn, but only at first glance. According to analysts at Re: Russia, the prospect of renewed peace talks in Turkey aligns with the aims of the Trump administration’s marathon negotiations in Saudi Arabia. In this sense, the Kremlin’s invitation builds on the momentum of American diplomacy, tempting the White House with a long-sought foreign policy win.

Vladimir Putin announced his proposal under unusual circumstances — at a press conference just after midnight on May 11, hours after four European leaders backed an ultimatum urging Russia to accept a ceasefire without preconditions as the first step toward negotiations. This ultimatum aimed to pressure the Kremlin to abandon its insistence on resolving certain “nuances” — demands Kyiv sees as tantamount to capitulation. Before the ultimatum, Moscow had managed to draw the Trump administration into discussions on peace terms, undercutting efforts to bring Russia to the table immediately.

European leaders maintain that talks only make sense if a ceasefire is in place. And it’s fair to ask what purpose another round of negotiations would serve if the Kremlin sticks to the same maximalist demands it made three years ago, which it has signaled it will. Zelensky’s initial reaction to Putin’s proposal also suggested that a ceasefire should precede talks. However, Ukraine’s position shifted when Trump abruptly embraced direct negotiations without preconditions, simultaneously undermining Europe’s ultimatum while expressing skepticism about “whether or not a deal is possible.” 

Re: Russia analysts argue that Putin’s proposal isn’t the stalling tactic it might seem. The Kremlin wouldn’t have named such an imminent date — coinciding with the end of Trump’s Saudi trip — if delay were the goal. Rather, the Russian president is leveraging Trump’s desire for a grand diplomatic achievement, regardless of its substance.

Trump has said he will only come to Turkey if Putin does, too. A meeting in Istanbul would make sense only if it yields an agreement, even a temporary truce. The potential terms remain unclear, but U.S. negotiators like Steve Witkoff — a consistent proponent of major concessions to Moscow — are likely burning the midnight oil to finalize a deal.

The only leader confirmed to be in Turkey on Thursday is Zelensky, who had little choice but to comply with Trump’s directive, given Washington’s threat to cut off military aid. Meanwhile, the European leaders who have previously supported Zelensky in disputes with the U.S. are expected to stay away.

Vladimir Putin has not yet responded to Zelensky’s invitation to meet in Turkey, but this silence underscores his stronger position, leaving the fate of the summit in his hands. In other words, only Putin can realize Trump’s dream of signing a breakthrough agreement during his first overseas tour.

Two months of negotiations (including U.S. offers to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea) suggest that Putin may be willing to relinquish claims to annexed territories his forces haven’t seized. But the Kremlin remains firmly opposed to continued Western military aid to Kyiv and any future European troop presence in Ukraine. A final deal brokered without input from Zelensky or European leaders risks granting Russia concessions on precisely these issues.

If Putin skips the talks in Istanbul, negotiations will likely continue at the foreign secretary level and conclude without results. But any sign that Putin will attend should raise alarm in Kyiv and across Europe. Zelensky will have almost no room to maneuver if both Trump and Putin arrive in Turkey with a draft agreement in hand — one that Trump will pressure Kyiv to sign. Even so, Ukraine’s embattled leader has repeatedly demonstrated remarkable resolve and ingenuity under pressure.